One of my favourite childhood memories is going to Harare Airport one Friday afternoon to see the Concorde arrive in town. I forced my parents to make another relatively long drive to the airport so I could see it again; it was parked close to the edge of the airport to allow visitors another glance.
As you can imagine, I was excited when I heard of United’s partnership with Boom Supersonic, a new aircraft manufacturer that’s looking to re-introduce commercial supersonic flight.
Boom Supersonic was founded in 2014 and has raised around $240m in funding. Their first commercial plane, Overture, will enter service in 2029. Boom goes by 3 S’s - Speed, Safety, and Sustainability, and have a commitment to being completely carbon-neutral in all of their operations.
It’s very exciting, but the main question I have on my mind is: will supersonic flight work this time? To answer this, you have to look at why it didn’t in the past.
Why Concorde failed
In one word: economics. Although Concorde pioneered many engineering achievements in its era, it was highly inefficient - it essentially traded lots of fuel for speed. The business case made sense in the context of low oil prices, before the 1970s oil crisis. Soon after, it couldn’t compete with the 747, which could carry twice as many passengers (350+ passengers vs Concorde’s 100) and fly approximately twice as far (range of 14,300km vs Concorde’s 7,250km).
The nails in Concorde’s coffin were safety incidents, notably the Paris incident, and the general downturn of the US aviation industry after 9/11.
Overture’s outlook
Negatives: travel need and aircraft range
Concorde was mainly aimed at the business travel segment, allowing people to travel between major cities on day trips. It made sense in the pre-internet business context. Another personal anecdote:
I once met someone whose summer job was a Concorde courier: he’d hop on Concorde in London to deliver documents and packages in New York and come back the same day.
The way people connect and do business has changed significantly in recent decades. With fast internet, people don’t really have to be in the same place - as the pandemic has proved. Corporate travel budgets are now a fraction of what they were (if you don’t use it, you’ll lose it) so employees will need to make a good case for why it’s important to have an in-person meeting on the other side of the world. This isn’t to say there won’t be a need for travel, but that the bar to meeting in-person is now even higher.
The Overture will suffer from the same range issue that Concorde did. At 8,300km, its range is just over half that of a Boeing Dreamliner or Airbus A380. It still won’t be able to compete on long-haul flights, for example, from Europe to the US’s West Coast.
Positives: efficiency and more travellers
Having said that, in the last 50 years, there have been countless technology improvements in aviation (e.g. subsonic airliners are 80% more efficient than they were 50 years ago). Overture is set to be ultra-efficient. Its operating cost will be much lower than Concorde’s. It has fewer seats than Concorde (~50 compared to Condorde’s 100+), meaning airlines only need to fill half as many seats to run a profitable flight (and can possibly capitalise on a supply/ demand mismatch).
Boom estimates flying on Overture will cost the same as a business class ticket costs on a normal airliner, around £4000 for a London to New York round trip - this is roughly half of what it cost to fly on Concorde1.
The reduced fares will also attract more luxury personal travellers. Their marketing is playing at the idea that there’s nothing like an in-person experience. This is getting people excited now, but I wonder if it will be the case in 2029 when United is expected to run the first flights.
The role of entrepreneurs
Although there are a number of macro trends facing Boom, the company is confident Overture will deliver on efficiency improvements and have clearly justified this to investors. I’m on Boom’s side to succeed. By taking on these challenges, they’re pushing boundaries. I like the way this post sums it up: an entrepreneur’s role is service to humanity. Taking this risky path, they’re pushing us all towards sustainable and fast air travel. Whatever setbacks they face are lessons that they, and others, will heed in the future.
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- Not taking inflation into account